(CP Photo/Richard Lam)

This is Canucks goaltender Roberto Luongo, after a goal in the Los Angeles Kings’ 4-3 win in Vancouver last Saturday night. The Canucks are now 3-6-1 in the 10 games since New Year’s Eve, and have only one win in their last seven. It’s safe to say they’re in a slump. To make matters worse, they’ve fallen to eighth place in the conference and are close to dropping out of playoff contention.

So who does head coach Alain Vigneault decide to blame? Why, the team’s best player, of course. In this piece (via Canucks and Beyond), Vigneault says Luongo needs to pick it up:

“When we were on a winning run we were getting a little bit more timely saves. Roberto, and when we use Curtis (Sanford, the Canuck backup), it’s been a little more challenging that way, for what ever reason. I know Roberto really wants to get on the same roll he was on prior to this. He would probably be the first one to tell you that since probably the Islanders game, the goaltender he has faced . . . has probably had a slight edge there. The facts are simple. We need our best players to be at their best. Roberto is one of them.”

Before we comment on this, let’s put on our statistical analysis hats. You know, the tall, conical ones. OK, ready? We’ve already covered seven losses in 10 games. During those ten games, the Canucks have allowed 27 goals and scored only 22. (I’ve omitted goals awarded for shootout results, i.e. in a 4-3 shootout score, I counted only three goals for each team.) The Canucks have also outshot their opponents 296-287 in those ten games, including outshooting the other guys in four of the seven losses in question.

So without any baseline or comparison to other teams, what do these numbers tell us? On the whole, the Canucks’ games are fairly tight. Seven of these have been one-goal games. No surprise there. So maybe Vigneault has a point: One or two more saves from Luongo in each game, and we’ve got a whole different set of stats. That’s one way of looking at it.

Another is this: THEY CAN’T FUCKING SCORE. If we can go back to the stats for a second, the Canucks have given up an average of 2.33 goals per game this season, good for third place in the league. Even their average in the last ten games (2.7 GA/G) would still keep them in the top half of the league, were it stretched out over the season.

On the other hand, they’ve scored only 2.55 goals per game, placing them squarely in . . . 23rd place. Over the last ten games they’ve scored 2.2 goals per game. Were that their season average, they’d be be dead last.

I think we’re starting to see where the real problem lies. We’ve harped on this before, but Vigneault and Canucks GM Dave Nonis are relying too heavily on Luongo to carry the team. The guy is a fantastic goalie, arguably the best in the league, but if your team’s balance is so precarious that they go into a free fall whenever Luongo is merely great instead of jaw-droppingly spectacular, then you’re in trouble.

I suspect Vigneault’s comments were more of the motivational variety, rather than how he really feels, but it’s simply unrealistic to expect Luongo to get continually better all the time, without ever occasionally dropping off. What more can the man do to carry this team? Are they going to ask him to start joining the rush and scoring next?

It’s time for Nonis to make a significant move to shore up the team’s offence. I’m not talking about waiver-wire rejects, but a game-breaker. Their goaltending is as good as it’s ever going to be. The defence is rock-solid, at least to the point where I can’t see how they’d make it any better in the foreseeable future, especially once Kevin Bieksa comes back from his calf injury. The glaring hole is up front. If the team is serious about making a run for the Cup, the time to strike is now.

I’ll refrain from making any suggestions on who to pursue for two reasons. I’m still confident Nonis knows what he’s doing, and I’m not one of those message board posters who thinks other players all exist in a vacuum, waiting for my team to come and snap them up at will. (“Let’s trade Morrison to Columbus for Vyborny.” Uh, OK, what if Columbus doesn’t want to?)

However, I will say it’ll be interesting to see what becomes of Maple Leafs captain Mats Sundin, now that GM John Ferguson Jr. has been fired. It’s rumoured the Canucks were interested in Sundin, but that JFJ was asking too steep a price, including young defenceman Alex Edler. Perhaps interim Leafs GM Cliff Fletcher will realize his team needs to enter rebuilding mode, and Nonis will be able to pry Sundin loose for a more reasonable price. Assuming Sundin is willing to waive his no-trade clause, of course.

- The Sieve

P.S.: I’m not the only one who thinks Vigneault’s system leaves no room for error.

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